AQUALIS INVESTOR LAB
The return on
capital question.
What could 20% ROCE in 2027 mean for shareholders? Explore the earnings recovery, dividend potential and the valuation beyond it.
Explore the 2027 targetQ3 2026 company data · Model dated 31 October 2026
2027 value at 20.0% ROCE
01 / THE NEXT MILESTONE
What does 20% ROCE unlock?
Higher returns require more earnings from the capital already in the business. See the bridge from your selected forecast to management’s ambition.
2.3 percentage points to the target
Target bridge holds the selected 2027 capital base, net debt and share count constant. It isolates the earnings effect of reaching the ROCE assumption; it is not a separate funded operating forecast.
ABL’s marine and energy work supports the core. Better utilisation matters more than pass-through revenue.
Investment programmes remain expensed. Benefits need to outweigh the continuing cost.
ROCE and dividend capacity both depend on turning earnings into cash.
02 / THE LONGER VIEW
Earnings. Cash. Shareholder returns.
Explore the selected case through 2030. Price potential and cash distributions are shown together, with debt and dilution flowing through the valuation.
Value and cash returned
NOK per shareAnnual dividend path
NOK per shareProgressive base dividend, subject to cash coverage.
2026 combines reported nine-month results and a modelled fourth quarter. 2027–2030 are estimates. Horizon share values are not today’s target prices. Total returns include distributions without reinvestment and exclude tax and dealing costs.
03 / BUILD YOUR OWN CASE
Make the assumptions yours.
Every change updates earnings, cash flow, debt, dividends and valuation. Presets are starting points for your own view.
04 / WHAT IS A FAIR MULTIPLE?
The multiple needs a reason.
Use 2027 earnings as the near-term anchor. Test a range rather than treating a single valuation multiple as a fact.
Relevant comparisons, different businesses.
Engineering consultancies such as Sweco, AFRY and Norconsult, and inspection groups such as Bureau Veritas, provide context. Aqualis has a different mix of marine advisory, wells, staffing and renewables. Its smaller scale, trading liquidity and cyclical exposure matter.
The 6× / 8× / 10× range is an NHG modelling judgement, not a live peer-valuation feed. Click a multiple above to see its effect across all years.
Adjusted EBIT × multiple
− bank net debt − lease obligations
÷ diluted shares × USD/NOK
= value per share in NOKAdjusted EBIT remains after right-of-use depreciation and investment-programme costs. Retained cash, distributions and debt are counted once.2030 margin / multiple sensitivity
Valuation-only comparison, holding the selected case’s 2030 revenue, net debt and shares constant.
05 / POTENTIAL BEYOND THE RECOVERY
What if Aqualis reaches $1bn in revenue?
Start with the selected core forecast and add acquisitions to reach $1bn in revenue. Existing earnings, cash flow and valuation are preserved; the model charges separately for the acquired business, financing and dilution.
Open the 2030 scale laboratoryPurchase discipline, financing, returns and per-share value
This is an incremental 2030 illustration. It adds acquired earnings and cash flow to the selected scenario. The annual report’s $1bn revenue ambition and double-digit EBITDA margin are benchmarks, not a funded deal plan. A stronger core case is not replaced by weaker fixed group assumptions.
What the acquisition history supports
AGR, 2023: NOK 262.5m enterprise value, 5.7× 2022 adjusted EBIT. Settlement was predominantly shares: NOK 272.5m in shares and NOK 5.3m cash, including the net-cash and working-capital adjustment. That supports modelling equity as a meaningful funding source, while recognising dilution.
LOC acquisition call, November 2020: the chairman said acquisition pricing should not exceed Aqualis’ own multiple. Management also identified cost synergies and working-capital efficiency as sources of shareholder value. This historical principle informs the valuation filter; it does not guarantee future execution.
Q3 2026 funding update: $40m committed RCF, two $20m uncommitted accordions and early-2029 maturity. The CFO stated that the company has no specific net-debt target. The default 1.0× bank-net-debt/EBITDA limit and 20% ending-capital ROCE hurdle here are NHG modelling filters.
Default acquisition assumptions: standalone adjusted EBIT margin of 7.5%, purchased at 5.5× EBIT; net cost synergies of 1% of acquired revenue; 25% cash / 75% equity seller consideration; transaction costs of 2% of purchase EV; shares issued at 95% of core 2030 value. The acquisition valuation multiple, payout and bank rate follow the selected scenario unless overridden. Purchase EV is lease inclusive: assumed leases reduce seller consideration and are deducted in the combined equity bridge. Normal acquired working capital is included in the purchase; a separate annual reinvestment allowance is charged only to cash-flow capacity. Defaults for acquired revenue are 1.8% depreciation, 1% cash capex, 0.75% lease principal, 0.4% annual working-capital investment and 2% ending lease liabilities. These are NHG assumptions, not deal terms or company guidance. Synergies are not included in the standalone earnings used to price the purchase.
The 1% acquired-revenue synergy assumption is net of incremental group support costs and is below the historical LOC target of 2.5% of combined revenue, but still requires execution. Set it to zero to test a case without synergies. The 0.4% annual working-capital allowance approximates 4% further growth at a 10% working-capital/sales intensity. The disclosed historical AGR multiple is a reference point; the model uses its own lease-inclusive EV convention. Acquisition timing, interim acquired distributions and full purchase accounting are not modelled. ROCE after acquisition uses ending capital, not company-reported average capital. Results remain conditional on financing, issue price, integration and operating performance.
Sources & model basis
Aqualis Q3 2026 presentation and conference call, 2025 annual report, and the NHG Aqualis financial model dated 31 October 2026. Company-reported figures and management ambitions are distinct from NHG scenario assumptions.
Read the numbers with context.
Illustrative analysis, not company guidance or personal investment advice. Future dividends require board approval and sufficient cash. Business mix, exchange rates, acquisition funding and market multiples can change the outcome.
Visual inspiration and cover imagery: Aqualis Q3 2026 presentation. Financial data sourced via Quartr. Independent NHG analysis; not affiliated with Aqualis.